ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIC SCENARIOS FOR MANAGING METALLURGICAL ENTERPRISES SECURITY DEVELOPMENT BASED ON COGNITIVE MODELLING

Вікторія В. Прохорова, Світлана А. Мушникова

Abstract


This study focuses on the important role of metallurgy industry in the Ukrainian economy. Within the scope of the research, a metallurgical enterprise is viewed as a complex, artificially created, polystructural socioeconomic system with its inherent distinctive features which is characterized by a range of specific activities and management practices. The authors argue that a major challenge to effective management of metallurgical enterprise is the understanding of a bunch of critical causal relationships that trigger multiple effects from external and internal factors on the enterprise business environment, the state of its development security, as well as affects goals and objectives of the new management strategy. The purpose of the research is to provide insights into theoretical and applied issues in building a cognitive model of alternative strategic scenarios for managing the development security of metallurgical enterprises. To perform the research agenda, the following methods have been applied: a system approach together with analysis and synthesis methods – to identify cause-and-effect relationships in security development management of metallurgical enterprises followed by the construction of a cognitive model, along with deploying abstract logical methods to shape conclusions on the results of the study. In the framework of this study, the use of a cognitive approach is suggested to work out alternative strategic scenarios for managing the development security of metallurgical enterprises. The cognitive approach concept combines abstract logic and gaming analysis techniques with economic statistical and mathematical methods applied to determine the relationships of the external and internal factors effect on the level of enterprise development security. It is emphasized that cognitive modelling has proven its effectiveness in exploring fuzzy-based factors and interactions; helps to take into account changes in the external and internal environment; contributes to effective use of modern development trends and searching for the most optimal management decisions as well as to reduce time to speed the decision making process.


Keywords


alternative scenarios of future events; cognitive model; development security; metallurgical enterprises



DOI: https://doi.org/10.30857/2413-0117.2020.1.6

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