CHANGES IN THE FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES OF UKRAINE IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR

Abstract

The full-scale military invasion of the Russian Federation affected Ukraine's foreign trade, caused significant losses of human capital, destroyed infrastructure and trade chains, and caused enormous damage to production capabilities due to the loss of electricity and the fixing of the NBU exchange rate by administrative methods. Volumes and structure of Ukraine's export-import operations in 2022 underwent drastic changes. The purpose of the study is to determine the changes by comparing the state and structure of Ukraine's foreign economy before and during the military aggression, as well as revealing the trends of Ukraine's foreign economic activity in wartime conditions. System analysis methods were used to determine the structure of foreign economic activity. Methods of observation and description were used to collect data on export and import and their comparison, the method of synthesis was used to highlight the features of Ukraine's external economy during the war. The method of graphic presentation is used to present the volume, dynamics and structure of foreign economic activity. It was established that in 2021, the external economy of Ukraine was rehabilitated after the Covid-19 pandemic, imports increased thanks to the three most important branches of Ukraine's imports: machines, equipment and transport; fuel and energy products and goods of the chemical industry, which made it possible to restore production and increase commodity exports. The predicted increase in the volume of commodity exports and imports did not occur, after the first two months of the war, significant changes took place in their structures. The largest volume of exports since was recorded in September 2022 ($4.135 billion), as a result of the unblocking of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. In 2022, the EU continued to be the largest trading partner of Ukraine, as in 2021, and the share of Ukrainian export operations with other countries and regions of the world, primarily CIS and Asian countries, decreased, in favor of the partnership with the EU. The most important change is that Poland took first place in terms of the volume of exports from Ukraine in 2022, which accounted for 15.7% of the specific weight of total merchandise exports. In the total volume of exports and imports, there was a collapse of foreign trade, in 2022 the volume of exports decreased by 35%, and imports by 19%. In the structure of imports, 3 main industries: oil and fuel and energy products, machines, equipment and transport, as well as the chemical industry remained unchanged. Changes in the structure of exports are determined by the main three sectors: agricultural goods, iron ore and ferrous metals, machinery and equipment.