ADAPTIVE DECISION-MAKING MODELS FOR PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

Abstrakt

THE AIM OF THE STUDY was to substantiate a distribution-based adaptive approach to decision-making in project portfolio management under conditions of a dynamic external environment. The study focuses on overcoming the limitations of traditional portfolio evaluation methods that rely on average performance indicators and deterministic planning, which are insufficient in conditions of uncertainty and non-stationary project outcomes.

RESEARCH METHODS. The following research methods were used in the article: general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis; methods of studying economic and managerial processes, including comparison and structuring; distribution analysis of project outcomes; confidence interval analysis; and methods of adaptive decision-making based on iterative data updates. A graphical method was applied to illustrate differences in project outcome distributions and their impact on portfolio-level decisions.

RESULTS. The article proves that the distributional characteristics of project outcomes are of fundamental importance for effective project portfolio management in dynamic environments. It is shown that projects with similar average performance may differ significantly in terms of variability, dispersion, and strategic potential. The study systematises projects according to their distribution profiles and demonstrates that low-variance projects contribute to short-term stability, while high-variance projects increase strategic optionality and long-term portfolio resilience. The proposed adaptive approach enables continuous reassessment of project attractiveness based on evolving empirical distributions and reduces the anchoring effect in managerial decision-making. The results confirm that incorporating distribution-based logic into portfolio management improves responsiveness to environmental changes and supports more balanced resource allocation.

KEYWORDS: adaptive management; decision uncertainty; distribution analysis; project portfolio management; risk dispersion; strategic flexibility; dynamic environment.