FORECASTING SCENARIOS OF POST-WAR RECOVERY BUSINESS STRUCTURES OF THE AGRICULTURAL SPHERE UKRAINE

Abstract

The article examines the pre-war state of development of enterprises in the agrarian sphere of Ukraine. It has been proven that by the beginning of 2022, Ukraine provided food for about 40 million people in the world and was one of the five leading global food exporters. Agricultural sector became one of the most affected sectors of the economy of Ukraine in the wake of the war. It was determined that the restoration of domestic enterprises in the agrarian sphere is one of the strategic tasks of the state. Various pessimistic and optimistic scenarios of the post-war recovery of the agrarian sphere have been studied. According to the scenario developed by the National Council for the Reconstruction of Ukraine in July 2022, the achievement of two key strategic goals of the restoration of the country's agrarian sector is expected: economic transformation of the agricultural sector; development of agricultural infrastructure. The implementation of the specified scenario is planned for a three-stage period until 2032. Pessimistic scenarios are based on the restoration of the pre-war structure of agriculture and the continuation of the policy of excessive support for agricultural holdings. Optimistic scenarios foresee the post-war restoration of the structure of agriculture on the basis of technological and digital reconstruction of the agrarian sphere. It has been proven that the existing scenarios of the post-war recovery of the agrarian sphere of Ukraine are built only on the activation of the efforts of the entrepreneurial structures themselves with the help of state support, which is not enough to accelerate the process of the post-war recovery of the agrarian sphere. The author's vision of the most probable scenario of the post-war recovery of the business structures of the agrarian sphere of Ukraine according to the scenario of the gradual digitalization of the agrarian sphere of Ukraine on the basis of the unification of business, science, education and state entities integrated into the business structures of the agrarian sphere, which become the core of the agro-industrial agglomeration in in the context of the concept of Agriculture 5.0. Therefore, the gradual technological and digital reconstruction of the agricultural sector of Ukraine based on the concept of Agriculture 5.0 will contribute to its faster recovery.