SCENARIO-BASED APPROACH TO MODELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PASSENGER AIR TRANSPORTATION MARKET IN TOURISM

Abstract

The relevance of the study is determined by the need to forecast the development of the passenger air transportation market in Ukraine amid structural instability stemming from global crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the consequences of the full-scale war. The development of tools to assess possible recovery trajectories for the aviation sector and the related tourism market is of particular importance. The aim of the study is to develop a methodological approach to scenario modeling of passenger air transportation market development in tourism by combining econometric analysis and scenario forecasting. The research applies statistical analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, correlation and regression analysis, and scenario forecasting. The information base includes statistical data on Ukrainian airport passenger flows, population incomes, macroeconomic indicators, and air transportation costs for the period of 2005–2021. The results of the study demonstrate that despite crisis periods, the Ukrainian passenger air transportation market has a long-term growth trend and significant recovery potential. The developed econometric model confirmed that real population income is the most influential factor determining air transportation demand, while changes in air ticket prices have a less significant impact. Based on the model, three market development scenarios through 2030 were developed, considering different assumptions about economic conditions, population income dynamics, and qualitative factors in aviation infrastructure development. The analysis revealed that the pace of passenger flow recovery will primarily depend on the speed of national economic recovery and the growth of population purchasing power. The proposed approach also allows for the consideration of external factors that cannot be directly quantified in traditional statistical models. The practical value of the study lies in the possibility of applying the proposed approach for strategic planning of aviation infrastructure development, assessment of investment priorities, and formation of management decisions in the fields of civil aviation and tourism.